I had another conversation with a Wall Street chart technician about bitcoin and where it might be going over the short term.
The last 30-day trend line is very evident coming off of a $11,500 high in the beginning of March down to a low of $6,600 overnight. Bitcoin now sits just below the $7,000 mark as I write this Friday morning.
“The trend is definitely not your friend here,” he said adding, “You don’t need to be mathematics PhD to figure that out.”
Taking the charts out 90-days you see the crypto’s demise from its all-time high sitting $10,000 higher.
“Over the last 3-months you see a 60% price depreciation, with little volatility within the slope. Since it’s relatively new there is little buying support on the dips, which probably makes analyzing the charts less effective,” the chartist admitted.
On the Street you have the investment philosophy of BTFD — buying the f*¢king dip. Bitcoin does not have that support. Crypto investors seem to run away from the falling knife, no one wishes to catch it.
“While the slope over the shorter term is flattening, the bias is to the downside,” the technician added.
What can turn the bias around? Sentiment has little to do with it. The regulatory hurdles and fraudulent initial coin offerings need to end since most likely investors can’t discriminate between a porncoin and bitcoin.
My personal opinion on bitcoin pricing is that we will see a bounce in sentiment over the next 6 weeks. This will be driven by news out of Washington that has nothing to do with bitcoin at all.