Stocks up, wages up, unemployment down. How could the Midterms be close?

As a financial writer in real life, I find it odd that the economy is not being ballyhooed by the Republicans more during this Midterm election. Or should I say not mentioned in the media more.

Stocks, as measured by the Dow Jones industrial average, are up 25% since President Trump was elected.

No the only focus the stock markets get nowadays is the recent gyrations in October, which also overshadowed the latest wage data showing a pay raise of more than 3% according toLabor Department data released Wednesday. The wage gains make sense since there is now a decades-low unemployment rate.

An argument could be made that the recent stock pullback story has much to do with a concern that the Democrats could possibly win the House of Representatives.

Certainly Wall Street has a growing concern that Rep. Maxine Waters could take over the leadership of the House Banking Committee. The same Maxine Waters who told protestors to go after Administration members of Republican members of Congress if you see them in a restaurant or the movie theater.

It’s not a question of impeachment, because that will never be in the cards, since the Democrats will never have enough votes to get charges brought and passed onto the Senate. No the real question is what do the Democrats stand for economically?

There’s very little evidence of any economic platform or any platform except being anti-Trump. But no one calls them out on this.

A perfect example of this is in San Francisco, where the Democratic Mayor and city council want to raise real estate and business taxes to stem the tide of growing homeless people defecating in the streets among other quality-of-life issues.

Left-leaning Silicon Valley firms like Google and Amazon among others are squawking over having to pay more taxes. Threatening to move out of the city if they are forced to pony up cash to alleviate a problem they caused by moving in and distorting the cost of housing in the Bay Area.

So where is the left’s economic thought? Clearly tax and spend doesn’t resonate with its biggest boosters — California tech companies.

And I would say it does not sit well with many institutional investors as well.

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Chinese trade tariff tiff will melt in August heat

We are in the midst of summer doldrums. Markets reading tariff headlines and reacting to mounting trade war.

I prefer to call it a trade tariff tiff, since it’s all blather as no country will stop trading with the US. While the markets reeled over the newest $200B in tariff against China, this will not be enacted until mid-August, so there is plenty of wiggle room for it to work out prior to the deadline.

The markets seem to agree with this premise since on Thursday stocks are retracing back almost 90% of Wednesday’s loses.

Short post today as there is little else going on.

Will we get a clue on June’s jobs number?

On Friday we get the monthly employment report from the government for June and be able to access the first six months of 2018.

Last month well before the 8:30am release time President Trump tweeted “Look forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.” The tweet moved the market leading many to say he should not have done so.

Wall Street is expecting gains of 191,000 jobs for June, with the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8 percent. In May the jobs number was 223,000, which resulted in Trump’s tweet.

So if there is no tweet on Friday morning, then the Street may sell of prior to the release. This is the reason for not breaking the embargo by hinting a good number is about to come out.

The Fed’s $14B bazooka bailed out stocks three weeks ago

Earlier this month, on the morning of Feb. 7th, I wrote about their being something rotten in the markets.

The day prior the Dow Jones index moved 1,167 points intraday. I wrote at the time the Plunge Protection Team’s fingerprints were all over the move. Continue reading

Gold, bitcoin loving the sturm und drang of markets

Before you could figure out how the market would react this morning to flat retail sales for the holiday quarter, Dow futures were up bigly on Wednesday.

Then before you could look up the definition of inflation this morning, the market was down “bigerly” on the Consumer Price Index report. Continue reading