What can we expect coming out of the midterms next week?
As Blexit and WalkAway movements of the right attempt to counteract the voter registration drives and the get out the vote campaigns being employed by the left, will the American people turnout in greater numbers than the average off-year election.
For presidential elections the average turnout is around 60% and for the midterms it falls to around 40%. Given the recent rhetoric and events of late October — Pittsburgh shooting, Honduran caravan and stock market gyrations — it may actually backfire on getting out the vote.
As the left pins every ill on President Trump — including his going to Pittsburgh for a symbolic gesture of unity with the victims and some families — many may say, “Why vote, Trump is not running.”
Given this division, I have a sense that turnout will be on the lower end, slightly below the 40% level. Many Americans have a distaste for the actions of both parties so much that they will turn their back on the whole idea of voting.
It can’t be called malaise, because new segments of the population are supercharged to effect change. Most of these voters however live in an area that is represented by the party they believe in.
Given this premise, the activists on both sides of the aisle will get to the polls. So the Congressional races may be more lopsided than normal in the winning vote percentage. However, there will not be many seats flipping parties since most democratic seats are already in the hands of the party and visa versa.
Come a week from now the sun will rise on an America with little change and a majority of the population saying to themselves, “See it didn’t really matter that I didn’t vote.”