JPM hits profit margin out of the park

Despite it being Friday the 13th, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon has no superstitions about reporting record profits for second quarter as bank reporting season kicks off.

The globe’s largest bank by assets locked in a profit of $8.3 billion on higher trading and investment banking revenue as compared to year earlier results. Overall the bank beat on both the top line of $28.39 billion, beating estimates of $27.34 billion and bottom line of EPS of $2.29, vs expectations of a $2.22.

The 18% profit number nearly doubled the street estimate of 9.4%.

JPMorgan’s income rose to $8.32 billion, or $2.29 per share, in the second quarter ended June 30, from $7.03 billion, or $1.82 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts expected the bank to earn $2.22 per share.

 

 

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Will we get a clue on June’s jobs number?

On Friday we get the monthly employment report from the government for June and be able to access the first six months of 2018.

Last month well before the 8:30am release time President Trump tweeted “Look forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.” The tweet moved the market leading many to say he should not have done so.

Wall Street is expecting gains of 191,000 jobs for June, with the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8 percent. In May the jobs number was 223,000, which resulted in Trump’s tweet.

So if there is no tweet on Friday morning, then the Street may sell of prior to the release. This is the reason for not breaking the embargo by hinting a good number is about to come out.

Tariffs and the Art of the deal German-style

As I wrote last week this is more of a tariff tiff than a war.

You announce a number — $50B, $200B in tariffs — it doesn’t matter. It’s just a number to begin negotiations.

Wednesday morning news broke that the German ambassador was about to announce that the EU would abandon all import tariffs for cars between the European Union and the US provided the Trump Administration drop its 25% border tax on all EU car imports.

See its all negotiations and never really gets implemented. It’s the Art of the Deal so to speak. Finally, America has someone who does not bow to pressure from other countries that have enjoyed decades of favorable treatment selling into the US market.

This has everything and nothing to do with President Trump. Presidents Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush could have done this. They couldn’t because they took the money of the multi-national corporations and the globalist free traders who demanded that the US come out on the losing end of most trade deals as a way to pay back for our other sins.

Enter Trump. No ties that bind to these factions. Knows a thing or two about negotiations and plays hardball with them. As I wrote earlier, do you think any country would forgo its ability to sell into the US over tariffs or import taxes?

Of course not. I think I hear China working the abacus to figure out its new proposal right now.

Most Americans should not fear the word tariffs

The tariff tiff between US and China is just that. Nothing even nearing a war.

If you believe that trade between the two countries will be hampered, constrained or restricted it will not it is merely hand wringing by liberal media.

No country would spite their citizens by cutting trade off with the US. We buy more from every country than any other country no matter the product or raw material category.

No the Trump administration is attempting to right a decades-long wrong when it comes to pricing and access to markets for US manufactures. Past administrations have short-shifted Americans for the idea of globalism vs nationalism.

Large US multinational corporations made huge profits working off of a globalist model where products were made in low-cost environments with taxes being held overseas.

The Trump White House wants to curtail this model in order for Americans to benefit from these jobs. The new Apple/Foxconn agreement is a possible template for his trade philosophy.

So the trade war headlines and rhetoric is coming from the left, which wants to continue the move to a globalist model at the loss of American workers. Tariffs are used to level the playing field to make the US stronger.

Why have we not heard of tariffs for over 20 years? Because previous administrations were giving the candy store away to China, EU and the like.

The White House wants to see the pendulum swing back to benefit Americans.

Bernanke’s policies were certainly not a Roadrunner

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Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke was taking jabs at President Donald Trump’s economic stimulus and tax cuts on Thursday in DC to a like-minded leftist crowd.

Bernanke, whose monetary policies helped every institution in the US except the US consumer, says the stimulus will only have a short-term effect and that by 2020 it will peter out.

The former Fed chair sounding quite jealous  since he begged the White House and Congress for this type of economic plan for most of his term as Fed chief to help pull the US out of the Great Recession.

Bernanke using the cartoon character Wiley E Coyote to say the US economy will go off a cliff in 2020. This happens to coincide with Trump’s re-election campaign.

Bernanke — citing the amount of stimulus coming from the White House of  $1.5 trillion in personal and corporate tax cuts and a $300 billion increase in federal spending — saying these policies  “make the Fed’s job more difficult all around” because it’s coming at a time of very low U.S. unemployment.”

While the unemployment rate is 3.8%, the number really does not take into account people working part-time and wish to have a full-time job. It also does not count the people who longer collect benefits.

So to say the US is at full employment is disingenuous at best, since Bernanke knows he is citing flawed data to take a shot at the Trump White House.

I find it ironic Bernanke would use the Wiley E Coyote imagery since no matter what he did as Fed chief both he and President Obama resided over the first modern 8-year term that did not achieve a 3% annual GDP growth. So to suggest that Trump’s economic policies are basically futile and will fall off the cliff is very rich.