Will we get a clue on June’s jobs number?

On Friday we get the monthly employment report from the government for June and be able to access the first six months of 2018.

Last month well before the 8:30am release time President Trump tweeted “Look forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.” The tweet moved the market leading many to say he should not have done so.

Wall Street is expecting gains of 191,000 jobs for June, with the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8 percent. In May the jobs number was 223,000, which resulted in Trump’s tweet.

So if there is no tweet on Friday morning, then the Street may sell of prior to the release. This is the reason for not breaking the embargo by hinting a good number is about to come out.


June jobs number will not cover all the graduates

The June jobs number will be released at 8:30 Friday morning.

The 3-month moving average is 121K, which is far too low to employ the graduates entering into the workforce. My figure for the June number is 125K, which is below the Street’s average of 179K.

Wage growth will be flat as well as the unemployment rate, which stands at 4.3%.

The rate is what bothers me the most. If you have a part-time job with no benefits you are considered employed for this survey. This is why the US economy is going nowhere.

How can someone making even $10/hour for 25 hours a week have any ability to buy anything more than basic needs. We have millions of Americans deemed “employed” that fall into this category.

Go into any fast food restaurant or retailer and you will find these “gainfully” employed Americans, suffering from this employment boom.

As wages will stay flat, this is the primary reason why inflation is so muted. If wages are not growing — either through pay raises or opportunities for better paying jobs — then prices are suppressed or reduced demand.

Higher-end products have better pricing power since its customer base have the ability to pay additional costs.

This situation cannot be rectified unless the Trump Administration can move on its pledge to get the infrastructure rebuild started. Better paying construction jobs in the cities can bring better paying jobs to some of the people we find in minimum wage jobs.