The US added 280K jobs in May, yet the unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.5% from prior 5.4% as participation rate ticks higher.
Should we see stronger jobs numbers, which in historical context are not so strong, we may see the jobless rate reach 5.9% to 6.0%.
There are plenty of people needing a job that have just given up and therefore not counted in the rate right now.
The instant reaction in the bond market was to dump government paper across the board with the 10-yr note spiking to 2.4% as equities tank on strong dollar move.
All that being said there is still no rate rise this year. We would need 3-4 months of “strong” jobs gains to see a move.
Remember less than 300K is not robust growth historically. And given the anemic numbers of the last 5 years, I’m not too impressed.