I apologize for not posting on Thursday or Friday, sometimes life gets in the way.
So the September jobs number was released on Friday and it was abysmal. At 142K is tells you all you need to know about where the US economy is headed.
The low jobs number for September was augmented by lowering by 60K the jobs gained in July and August, which is a 15% reduction.
The unemployment rate remained at 5.1 percent with the labor-force participation rate — reflecting workers either with jobs or actively looking for work — fell to 62.4 percent, the lowest rate since 1977.
The quality of the jobs added over the longer term is questionable at best. The US added 350K bartenders and wait staff in the last year. I don’t wish to denigrate anyone working, but this is not a profession. This is a stop-gap job to stem the bleeding of cash in a household.
To add evidence to a recessionary US economy the Atlanta Fed halved its projection for Q3 GDP growth, reducing it from an anemic 1.8 percent level to 0.9 percent.
The bond mavens see what is going on with the economy and have taken the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to a five-month low on Friday to 1.989 percent from 2.042 percent on Thursday.
So let me reiterate again, with all this data it is clear that the Fed will not raise rates this year. In fact I believe my favorite baseball team — the NY Mets — will be opening next season with rates at the same level they are right now.