Next week I will have some predictions for 2016, but this one can’t wait.
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index will put in its high for the year in the third week in January and we will see a slippery slope downward for the 1st half of the year.
The Fed will not raise rates over the first 6 months due to weakening economic conditions. It will be forced to lower rates back to zero by its June meeting with much talk of doing further easing.
The easing will come, but the Fed will be forced to wait until the Nov-Dec meeting in order not to affect the presidential election.
This morning we get the last update on Q3 2015, which came in at 2%. And that’s due to rounding. The number came in below 2%, but we can’t have a sub-2% quarter and raise rates the next quarter.