Q1 ends green, Q2 starts red

So Janet Yellen was able to get a green print for Q1 with the help of the institutional investors on the Street.

From the slightly red markets on Tuesday prior to speaking, Yellen lifted them back into the green with her “gradualism” remarks on rate rises. The Fed chief took back two proposed — but where never going to happen — rate rises for 2016.

The data for the Easter miracle (calculated from last Thursday’s close since Friday markets were closed) is as such:

Dow +1% from last Thursday, +1.6% from the Tuesday lows. YTD +1.49%

S&P +1.3 % from last Thursday,  which pushed it into the green with a +0.77% gain for the quarter.

Nasdaq 2% from last Thursday, but alas they could not get a green print for the YTD with tech-heavy index losing 2.75%

Now this is where there was super lifting over Yellen’s words. Treasury’s 10-year note yield fell 5.6% since Thursday. Yellen kicked the strongish dollar out of bed and prices jumped on Uncle Sam’s debt.

So when the Fed chair says she and her cohorts are data dependent, the only data the Fed really eyes is the major exchanges on top of the Google Finance page.

March payrolls added 215K jobs with hourly earnings ticking up 0.01 percentage point. The rate rose on tick to 5% as people look to come back in perhaps.

Initial market reaction was to sell off equity futures and move into treasury debt.

The big question with this jobs number — which Yellen must have had a sense of on Tuesday — what is the Fed worried about?

China? Europe? The focus  on Tuesday’s speech was global concerns, perhaps contagion will be the buzzword for Q2.


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