This week we get the first reading of Q1 GDP and it does not look good.
Right now the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has it growing at an annual rate of 0.3%. That means the first quarter “grew” at 0.075%.
Now you don’t need to fudge the numbers too much to get that type of “growth” in the quarter. A tick on housing starts or inventories can get you to that “positive” number versus a negative quarter.
You know the White House is heavily invested in not seeing a negative quarter here. Simply put no party wants to run in a recession and with a negative print in Q1 we would be half way there.
So on Friday at 8:30 am EDT we get the first reading of Q1 GDP. Look for the Obama Administration to pad even more wiggle room when it comes in at 0.6%, just in case more bad news comes in on the two revisions released at the end of May and June.