What’s behind the Q1 GDP?

President Trump’s first economic report card is due at 8:30 this morning with the Q1 2017.

As I write this an hour before the release, the outlook is not very good. Last month’s jobs report came in at 98K, which was the lowest monthly gain in more than a year, foretold that hiring and wage growth was still stagnant despite the White House’s jawboning on the theme of Making America Great Again.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which is a real-time GDP barometer, estimates Q1 economic activity at 0.2%. This is a stall level, meaning that the economy is not growing and could be moving into a recession, as I have stated in earlier articles on the demise of retail.

Now, for the record I do not think the feds will release a 0.2% number. I believe it will be closer to the NY Fed’s level of 2.7%.

How is there such a discrepancy? Well the NY Fed started their Nowcasting Report to combat the Atlanta Fed’s continuing pessimistic outlook.

In the aggregate Atlanta is more accurate in gauging economic growth.

With that in mind, I think the number will be close to 0.9%.

I will come back later this morning to write a post on the actual number.

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One thought on “What’s behind the Q1 GDP?

  1. Pingback: Recessionary GDP will pause the Fed | Gray's Economy

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