May’s job number will give Fed reason to pause

Unexpectedly May’s job number came in at a paltry 138,000 and April’s hot number was revised down by 66,000 jobs.

The labor participation rate, which measures how many able-body adults are in the workforce shrank by 0.2 percentage points as less Americans are even marginally employed.

However, the unemployment rate declined by one tick to 4.3%, based on a separate household study. Wages move slightly, growing 0.2 percentage points month over month.

All in all not a very good report and it may give the Federal Reserve a reason to pause on its June rate hike, which I said would not happen anyway.

There’s too much weakness in the labor force as whole industries such as retail and casual dining are going through monumental contraction due to weak spending.


Friday the Labor Department will release the May jobs report. Wall Street analysts are  expecting 185,000 jobs were created, which is lower than April’s 211,000.

I believe it will come in around the 210,000, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, usually adds more than 240,000 to the May number.

This bureau’s guesstimate is for jobs it believes were created but has no proof of from the data just yet. May is one of the larger adjustments for the guesstimate.

I’ll update this after 8:30 EST Friday once the number is released.

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