Wall Street eyeing bitcoin after putting in a bottom

Some Wall Street analysts and traders like what they see it bitcoin on Thursday.

But say you can’t look at it like a stock because with bitcoin there is always another shoe that can drop. Continue reading


Markets running a fever (chart) over health care vote

The health care debate will rule the news cycle today as well as equity markets.

The repeal of ObamaCare has become a proxy for the Trump Administration’s ability to get other meaningful measures accomplished this year including tax cuts across the board.

Look for another sell off Like Thursday’s close in stocks should the Trump White House go through with its ultimatum of pass it or stay with ObamaCare for the next two years.

As I wrote earlier Trump’s thinking as a CEO is over on this issue, He has tasked people to come up with a new health care plan. He’s ticked that off his list of things to accomplish. If he is stymied by Congress, then he will move on. Politics is not his forte, obviously.

As of 7am EDT, Dow futures are up 25 points, which indicates some positive thought on the passage of the vote.

I use Wall St. as a better barometer than the Washington pundits since the traders have money on the line versus “insiders” with no skin in the game being spun by legislative aides looking to make a name for themselves to get on the DC gravy train.

This same metric told me Trump won the November election — hours before any network called it — when the futures market fell some 700 points around 10pm EST.

Two updates on items I ran this week:

  1. Ford Motors came out with numbers on Thursday pointing to the problem with subprime auto loans by saying that used car sale prices will be lower for many years due to a flood or repossessed cars hitting the market. Ford hinted that this will have a material effect on it business going forward.
  2. On Monday I wrote about the rash of Russian politicians dying. Denis Voronenkov a former member of the Dumas and an open critic of Vladimir Putin was shot down in broad daylight outside the Premier Palace Hotel in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.

Markets ignoring yen weakness

As we wait for the Bureau of Economic Analysis to release its revisions to GDP going back to 2013 at 8:30 am EDT, the stock markets are looking at point of inflection.

While the yen is cratering against other currencies as the Japanese central banker Kuroda nixed the idea of issuing additional QE or helicopter money.

In the past I have pointed out in the past, when the yen weakens, global equities suffer as the yen carry trade suffers. Buying stocks in yen is the favorite trade as you use the weakness to build bigger positions.

Well, on Friday the yen was cratering nearly 2% yet US futures indices are only down fractionally. Understanding of course Friday is also the end of the month trading, which is usually a window-dressing session for end-of-the-month statements.

We could also say there may be some intervention by other central banks into the futures market as well.

Because if you look at past moves of yen weakness of this level, Dow futures should be down 150 points as the least.

Pre-market ramp

Pre-open equities are soaring on the believe that there is movement afoot to kick the can down the road and provide more heroin to their coffers.

Yet the larger bond market doesn’t see the same light at the end of the tunnel. Yields are moving higher as institutional investors sell off short to medium bonds and bills.

Perhaps the adults in the room — bonds — see the light, but know its a train barreling into the markets.

Either way Treasury chief Jack Lew is to testify before Senate Finance panel in 20 minutes, which could take so of the wind out of the Dow and S&P futures.